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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 29 games
76%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
Ame · 23 games
48%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 18 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Poloson · 18 games
61%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusk
GH · 37 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 25 games
52%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 25 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 23 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 23 games
61%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Ghost · 19 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
350 picks · 244 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
314 picks · 694 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 276 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
280 picks · 143 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
272 picks · 737 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 603 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 520 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
243 picks · 502 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total75% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:21
Xtreme Gaming 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightAme
49% · 25 games50% · 131 game
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Sniper
SniperXm
53% · 122 games62% · 20 games
Troll WarlordGhost
Troll Warlord
Mars
MarsXxs
46% · 157 games43% · 71 game
UnderlordNo!ob
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
42% · 152 games54% · 204 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanxNova
55% · 81 game55% · 111 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct31:4
Xtreme Gaming 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
49% · 134 games49% · 171 game
MedusaGhost
Medusa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXxs
51% · 211 games55% · 299 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckXm
51% · 331 game53% · 173 games
Shadow FiendSumaiL
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
38% · 230 games54% · 250 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockxNova
44% · 234 games55% · 247 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 75%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2