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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 26 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 20 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
shiro · 19 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 18 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 18 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 31 game
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 26 games
58%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 20 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skiter · 20 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
372 picks · 275 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
319 picks · 714 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
296 picks · 157 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 287 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
284 picks · 772 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
265 picks · 614 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
265 picks · 527 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 494 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total62% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:29
Team Tidebound 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNothingToSay
53% · 201 game55% · 226 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Marci
Marcishiro
49% · 169 games51% · 153 games
MarsATF
Mars
Timbersaw
TimbersawFaith_bian
44% · 195 games55% · 284 games
BeastmasterMalr1ne
Beastmaster
Muerta
MuertapLAnet
45% · 360 games50% · 133 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Disruptor
Disruptory`
44% · 126 games52% · 255 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct5:22
Team Tidebound 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
45% · 230 games59% · 223 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendshiro
47% · 167 games45% · 128 games
AbaddonSkiter
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
46% · 158 games50% · 185 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetpLAnet
48% · 173 games63% · 167 games
Naga SirenSneyking
Naga Siren
Disruptor
Disruptory`
44% · 86 games53% · 111 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 62%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2