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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSpoiledloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
60%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
25%
Axe
Axeoften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
33%

eSpoiled

Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 11 games
64%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 11 games
27%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
383 picks · 289 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
319 picks · 726 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 161 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 292 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 781 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
265 picks · 616 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
264 picks · 535 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 490 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:34
Team Lynx 48%eSpoiled 52%
The model gave 52% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 1:10:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet7jesu
51% · 98 games42% · 83 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Puck
Puckmellojul
55% · 119 games54% · 25 games
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark SeerfortniteMan
48% · 80 games52% · 64 games
Snapfirenot me
Snapfire
49% · 125 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed42:13
Team Lynx 45%eSpoiled 55%
The model gave 55% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet7jesu
50% · 182 games48% · 94 games
Medusassnovv1
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawfortniteMan
46% · 150 games48% · 65 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Invoker
Invokermellojul
51% · 139 games57% · 86 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
50% · 226 games
Tinynot me
Tiny
Game 3prediction missed27:18
Team Lynx 45%eSpoiled 55%
The model gave 55% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Sven7jesu
34% · 49 games44% · 10 games
Anti-Magessnovv1
Anti-Mage
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerfortniteMan
39% · 88 games59% · 143 games
Void SpiritDifference
Void Spirit
Puck
Puckmellojul
48% · 178 games58% · 78 games
Disruptornot me
Disruptor
64% · 84 games
Baneasdekor_r
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 56%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3