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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
14%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Delight · 3 games
100%
Invoker
Invoker
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 2 games
0%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 30 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 14 games
86%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
69%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
383 picks · 292 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
319 picks · 727 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
308 picks · 162 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 292 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 784 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
266 picks · 618 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
264 picks · 533 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 488 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:35
Winter Bear 30%Passion UA 70%
The model gave 70% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 28:13.
Game 2prediction correct15:37
Winter Bear 30%Passion UA 70%
The model gave 70% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 36:30.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 70%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2