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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 22 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 21 game
38%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 18 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 14 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
flacko · 13 games
92%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 13 games
46%

VP.Prodigy

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
393 picks · 307 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 739 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
318 picks · 169 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
310 picks · 298 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
299 picks · 792 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 616 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
264 picks · 534 bans
56%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 482 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:26
TNL DOTA 75%VP.Prodigy 25%
The model gave 75% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 50:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetyowaai
51% · 195 games57% · 217 games
Templar Assassinegx
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
Earthshakerdualrazee
50% · 185 games53% · 290 games
Ember SpiritSerenada
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
46% · 317 games47% · 205 games
Marstakizawa
Mars
Clockwerk
Clockwerkflacko
56% · 298 games45% · 177 games
Snapfirearmageddon
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
44% · 157 games51% · 263 games
PugnaVaniLLl
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct26:21
TNL DOTA 74%VP.Prodigy 26%
The model gave 74% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 45:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
40% · 198 games51% · 117 games
Lycantakizawa
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
50% · 277 games53% · 209 games
TimbersawSerenada
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand Kingdualrazee
51% · 114 games59% · 93 games
Void Spiritegx
Void Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFernans
55% · 182 games50% · 321 game
Batriderarmageddon
Batrider
Snapfire
Snapfireflacko
47% · 98 games46% · 129 games
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 90%
Series resultTNL DOTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2