European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Slardar
StoneBank · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Axeoften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
Luna
7jesu · 3 games
Level UP
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 18 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 13 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 11 games
Mirana
Ponlo · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
400 picks · 314 bans
Dark Willow
323 picks · 172 bans
Puck
322 picks · 748 bans
Tusk
311 picks · 301 bans
Batrider
299 picks · 802 bans
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 613 bans
Nature's Prophet
264 picks · 534 bans
Marci
247 picks · 476 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:18
Team Lynx 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin7jesu
Shadow FiendRain
DawnbreakerfortniteMan
Dragon Knightrincyq
Leshracmellojul
Enchantressjesv
51% · 198 games
TinyAtoufix
Game 2prediction missed41:6
Team Lynx 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet7jesu
Phantom Lancerrincyq
Queen of Painmellojul
Shadow FiendRain
MarsfortniteMan
LionAtoufix
54% · 93 games
Shadow Demonjesv
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 52%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2