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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 20 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
shiro · 19 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 18 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 18 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 17 games
71%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 31 game
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 20 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skiter · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
431 picks · 368 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
347 picks · 183 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 787 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 330 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 830 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
276 picks · 546 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 625 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 362 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total66% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:42
Team Tidebound 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:14:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
53% · 139 games56% · 195 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNothingToSay
51% · 238 games45% · 142 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
54% · 89 games52% · 75 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Axe
AxeFaith_bian
40% · 97 games51% · 101 game
Naga SirenSneyking
Naga Siren
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
59% · 40 games42% · 90 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed34:40
Team Tidebound 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 1:11:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
49% · 221 game46% · 94 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
55% · 208 games48% · 204 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
41% · 124 games57% · 184 games
MagnusATF
Magnus
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
47% · 84 games53% · 122 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Bane
Baney`
56% · 60 games47% · 93 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed44:19
Team Tidebound 40%Team Falcons 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 58:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanFaith_bian
50% · 66 games55% · 166 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
50% · 161 game48% · 118 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
52% · 111 games41% · 107 games
MarsATF
Mars
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
42% · 58 games60% · 26 games
GrimstrokeCr1t-
Grimstroke
Naga Siren
Naga Sireny`
55% · 96 games52% · 75 games
BaneSneyking
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 66%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3