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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 31 game
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 19 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skiter · 19 games
74%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 24 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 24 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 23 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
430 picks · 374 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
352 picks · 184 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
334 picks · 330 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 784 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 828 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
275 picks · 365 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
274 picks · 538 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
273 picks · 621 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total56% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
Team Falcons 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
53% · 200 games40% · 206 games
Queen of PainmiCKe
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
46% · 234 games47% · 133 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey KingATF
53% · 280 games54% · 130 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCr1t-
58% · 31 game58% · 123 games
Naga SireniNSaNiA
Naga Siren
Bane
BaneSneyking
51% · 97 games46% · 250 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct28:21
Team Falcons 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
48% · 20 games47% · 249 games
MuertamiCKe
Muerta
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
52% · 251 game49% · 248 games
BeastmasterNisha
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 142 games40% · 47 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
56% · 81 game44% · 101 game
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
58% · 237 games54% · 86 games
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 56%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2