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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 18 games
44%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 12 games
42%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Emo · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
GH · 36 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Ghost · 22 games
36%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 22 games
64%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
436 picks · 385 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 188 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 340 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 791 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 837 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
277 picks · 213 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 373 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
275 picks · 539 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total69% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:28
Yakult Brothers 39%Nigma Galaxy 61%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenflyfly
47% · 107 games49% · 216 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEmo
49% · 151 game56% · 230 games
Dragon KnightGhost
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBEYOND
45% · 243 games56% · 94 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Lion
LionBoBoKa
48% · 212 games50% · 179 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
42% · 120 games58% · 114 games
BaneOmaR
Bane
Game 2prediction missed28:9
Yakult Brothers 40%Nigma Galaxy 60%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaflyfly
49% · 165 games52% · 189 games
Templar AssassinGhost
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
47% · 227 games56% · 167 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBEYOND
47% · 71 game48% · 118 games
UndyingNo!ob
Undying
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
46% · 209 games51% · 108 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BaneOli
49% · 139 games54% · 229 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed33:38
Yakult Brothers 39%Nigma Galaxy 61%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 1:00:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetflyfly
47% · 221 game54% · 96 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEmo
43% · 261 game56% · 179 games
Shadow FiendSumaiL
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierBEYOND
44% · 354 games59% · 302 games
Monkey KingGhost
Monkey King
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
47% · 234 games53% · 186 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
59% · 12 games50% · 319 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 69%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3