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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 37 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 35 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 35 games
54%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 25 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 18 games
44%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 12 games
42%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Emo · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
439 picks · 393 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
357 picks · 191 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 343 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 791 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 839 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
278 picks · 214 bans
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
274 picks · 616 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 384 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:11
Aurora Gaming 68%Yakult Brothers 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
48% · 104 games58% · 85 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
51% · 143 games55% · 324 games
BristlebackBEYOND
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 237 games41% · 200 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanto
46% · 192 games57% · 289 games
MagnusBoBoKa
Magnus
Tusk
TuskMira
49% · 338 games51% · 116 games
DisruptorOli
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct38:26
Aurora Gaming 67%Yakult Brothers 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 48:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNightfall
55% · 240 games56% · 143 games
Alchemistflyfly
Alchemist
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
42% · 193 games53% · 217 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
38% · 197 games53% · 322 games
BeastmasterBEYOND
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
49% · 226 games51% · 400 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderMira
49% · 462 games55% · 236 games
PugnaOli
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 82%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2