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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 30 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 19 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
74%

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 29 games
79%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
Ame · 23 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 21 game
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
439 picks · 393 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
357 picks · 191 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 343 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 791 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 839 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
278 picks · 214 bans
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
274 picks · 616 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 384 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:22
Team Falcons 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalr1ne
54% · 314 games53% · 196 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Sven
SvenSkiter
42% · 121 game47% · 349 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierATF
43% · 372 games49% · 179 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
53% · 158 games47% · 141 game
HoodwinkXinQ
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinCr1t-
56% · 107 games54% · 207 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed24:33
Team Falcons 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:18:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusATF
53% · 182 games53% · 65 games
SvenAme
Sven
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
49% · 73 games52% · 196 games
EarthshakerXxs
Earthshaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalr1ne
47% · 207 games50% · 178 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
46% · 137 games55% · 212 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
38% · 120 games59% · 68 games
MiranaxNova
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed31:38
Team Falcons 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:09:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
49% · 145 games55% · 113 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
56% · 92 games42% · 130 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Doom
DoomATF
58% · 155 games50% · 164 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSneyking
54% · 107 games42% · 136 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
49% · 108 games47% · 64 games
BanexNova
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3