The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 26 games
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dukalis · 20 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 20 games
Kunkkasignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
Nigma Galaxy
Tuskoften banned
GH · 36 games
Elder Titansignature
GH · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
Marcioften banned
Ghost · 21 game
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 21 game
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
Dark Willow
OmaR · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
444 picks · 408 bans
Dark Willow
358 picks · 193 bans
Tusk
340 picks · 346 bans
Puck
331 picks · 801 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 844 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 393 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 218 bans
Nature's Prophet
279 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total81% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:26
PARIVISION 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSatanic
SvenGhost
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm SpiritSumaiL
EnigmaDM
MarciNo!ob
ClockwerkDukalis
PhoenixGH
Alchemist9Class
BaneOmaR
Game 2prediction correct34:16
PARIVISION 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 55:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerSatanic
GyrocopterGhost
Sand KingNo[o]ne
Death ProphetSumaiL
UnderlordDM
BeastmasterNo!ob
Slark9Class
MuertaOmaR
SnapfireDukalis
IoGH
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 81%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2