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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 36 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 35 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 35 games
54%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 26 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 23 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 23 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 23 games
39%
Tiny
Tiny
YamSun · 21 game
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 19 games
47%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%
Bane
Bane
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
444 picks · 410 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
358 picks · 195 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 346 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 801 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 845 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
283 picks · 393 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
281 picks · 218 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
279 picks · 536 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
Aurora Gaming 81%Wildcard Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
46% · 71 game52% · 127 games
LeshracRCY
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
52% · 178 games48% · 198 games
AbaddonYamSun
Abaddon
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 152 games51% · 139 games
UndyingFayde
Undying
Batrider
BatriderPanto
47% · 244 games50% · 85 games
Bounty HunterBignum
Bounty Hunter
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
57% · 52 games46% · 148 games
DisruptorSpeeed
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct27:21
Aurora Gaming 80%Wildcard Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 45:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
47% · 118 games56% · 177 games
Sand KingRCY
Sand King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
50% · 120 games55% · 36 games
Faceless VoidYamSun
Faceless Void
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
42% · 127 games63% · 143 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Tusk
TuskMira
45% · 230 games46% · 155 games
UndyingFayde
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
42% · 53 games53% · 137 games
SnapfireBignum
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 94%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2