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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 36 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 18 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 12 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jaunuel · 12 games
42%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Armel · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Jabz · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
450 picks · 419 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
363 picks · 195 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 348 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
325 picks · 805 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
319 picks · 850 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
285 picks · 397 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
284 picks · 229 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
282 picks · 531 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:23
Team Liquid 75%BOOM Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:03:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
54% · 222 games43% · 111 games
LeshracArmel
Leshrac
Doom
DoommiCKe
52% · 208 games50% · 323 games
Dragon KnightJaCkky
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
52% · 177 games45% · 197 games
AbaddonJabz
Abaddon
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
48% · 84 games50% · 144 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
50% · 349 games55% · 265 games
PugnaJaunuel
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed10:23
Team Liquid 75%BOOM Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
52% · 395 games45% · 315 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanNisha
62% · 101 game49% · 125 games
Queen of PainArmel
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
61% · 169 games42% · 146 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
43% · 122 games49% · 132 games
PugnaJaunuel
Pugna
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
49% · 133 games45% · 202 games
Dark WillowTims
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct33:16
Team Liquid 75%BOOM Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidmiCKe
53% · 33 games44% · 186 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNisha
51% · 182 games48% · 199 games
PuckArmel
Puck
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
63% · 98 games53% · 88 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Warlock
WarlockiNSaNiA
57% · 199 games42% · 40 games
ZeusJaunuel
Zeus
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
40% · 143 games43% · 142 games
Dark WillowTims
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 88%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3