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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 31 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 30 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 30 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
33 · 24 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 23 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 20 games
65%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 17 games
41%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
46%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 12 games
42%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Emo · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
449 picks · 425 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
364 picks · 195 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 350 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 802 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 851 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
284 picks · 399 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 233 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
280 picks · 527 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 36%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total86% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
Tundra Esports 72%Yakult Brothers 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallis
46% · 14 games54% · 79 games
Void SpiritEmo
Void Spirit
Lycan
Lycan33
55% · 74 games48% · 196 games
Terrorbladeflyfly
Terrorblade
Invoker
Invokerbzm
52% · 180 games45% · 140 games
MarsBEYOND
Mars
Tusk
TuskSaksa
46% · 291 game50% · 148 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Silencer
SilencerTobi
53% · 93 games50% · 89 games
BaneOli
Bane
Game 2prediction missed27:40
Tundra Esports 75%Yakult Brothers 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
59% · 355 games47% · 290 games
Dragon Knightflyfly
Dragon Knight
Axe
Axe33
48% · 123 games47% · 340 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
56% · 184 games48% · 247 games
DawnbreakerBEYOND
Dawnbreaker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSaksa
56% · 306 games42% · 122 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Batrider
BatriderTobi
56% · 426 games41% · 395 games
TuskBoBoKa
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct21:10
Tundra Esports 72%Yakult Brothers 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
little data48% · 178 games
Morphlingflyfly
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
52% · 111 games44% · 136 games
AbaddonBEYOND
Abaddon
Invoker
Invokerbzm
51% · 138 games53% · 85 games
Void SpiritEmo
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinySaksa
50% · 237 games46% · 73 games
RubickBoBoKa
Rubick
Bane
BaneTobi
56% · 82 games51% · 96 games
DisruptorOli
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 86%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3