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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 28 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Skiter · 19 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 18 games
67%

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tiny
Akashi · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 4 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 3 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 3 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Raven · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Jing · 3 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jing · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
449 picks · 425 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
364 picks · 195 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 350 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 802 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 851 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
284 picks · 399 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 233 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
280 picks · 527 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:16
Team Falcons 82%Team Nemesis 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
45% · 59 games49% · 130 games
Templar AssassinAkashi
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
50% · 153 games55% · 191 game
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 123 games46% · 135 games
DawnbreakerRaven
Dawnbreaker
Chen
ChenSneyking
67% · 101 game49% · 101 game
MarciJing
Marci
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
42% · 121 game
Game 2prediction missed32:28
Team Falcons 82%Team Nemesis 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 44:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
42% · 43 games56% · 149 games
LunaAkashi
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
62% · 69 games45% · 112 games
LeshracMac
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey KingATF
50% · 173 games57% · 124 games
EnigmaRaven
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireSneyking
46% · 97 games46% · 158 games
MarciJing
Marci
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
47% · 161 game
Game 3prediction correct34:41
Team Falcons 82%Team Nemesis 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:10:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
55% · 206 games39% · 76 games
LeshracMac
Leshrac
Sven
SvenSkiter
51% · 85 games49% · 47 games
RazorAkashi
Razor
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
58% · 92 games41% · 152 games
DawnbreakerRaven
Dawnbreaker
Chen
ChenSneyking
61% · 89 games48% · 251 game
BatriderJing
Batrider
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
55% · 54 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 95%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3