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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
99%1%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 31 game
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 28 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
94%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 17 games
65%

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 26 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 23 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tiny
YamSun · 21 game
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 19 games
47%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%
Bane
Bane
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
449 picks · 425 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
364 picks · 195 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 350 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 802 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 851 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
284 picks · 399 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 233 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
280 picks · 527 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total99% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Team Spirit 86%Wildcard Gaming 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
51% · 158 games48% · 274 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
50% · 311 games46% · 193 games
Sand KingRCY
Sand King
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCollapse
59% · 133 games41% · 92 games
UndyingFayde
Undying
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
47% · 124 games44% · 171 game
SnapfireBignum
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
56% · 257 games55% · 253 games
Shadow DemonSpeeed
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct24:1
Team Spirit 85%Wildcard Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciYatoro
45% · 162 games47% · 210 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
59% · 143 games48% · 253 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
57% · 163 games56% · 221 game
MagnusFayde
Magnus
Rubick
Rubickrue
42% · 156 games51% · 146 games
PugnaSpeeed
Pugna
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
50% · 341 game47% · 135 games
SnapfireBignum
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 99%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2