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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 36 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 35 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 34 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 29 games
79%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
Ame · 22 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 21 game
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
449 picks · 425 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
364 picks · 195 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 350 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 802 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 851 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
284 picks · 399 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 233 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
280 picks · 527 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total51% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:27
Aurora Gaming 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNightfall
56% · 151 game51% · 120 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
55% · 176 games46% · 139 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 138 games47% · 109 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Chen
ChenPanto
61% · 68 games43% · 107 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Lion
LionMira
53% · 125 games45% · 183 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed9:29
Aurora Gaming 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 159 games54% · 85 games
SvenAme
Sven
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
60% · 21 game47% · 291 game
PuckXm
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 206 games45% · 135 games
UndyingXxs
Undying
Pugna
PugnaPanto
53% · 133 games57% · 79 games
Elder TitanxNova
Elder Titan
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
48% · 230 games47% · 159 games
LionXinQ
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 51%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2