CIS Battle 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
OGwin 3:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 3:1
HULIGANIloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 16 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 16 games
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 14 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
460 picks · 444 bans
Dark Willow
369 picks · 203 bans
Tusk
348 picks · 364 bans
Puck
322 picks · 822 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 873 bans
Pangolier
289 picks · 418 bans
Nature's Prophet
286 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
286 picks · 245 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:8
OG 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by OG in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterMikSa`
LycanBb3px
Nature's ProphetShad
Faceless Voidv1olent-
PuckStojkov
Earthshakererase
ClockwerkDaze
Warlockaik
SnapfireLelis
Pugnaslimeyao
Game 2prediction missed35:27
OG 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by OG in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinShad
Doomv1olent-
TimbersawMikSa`
Leshracerase
Void SpiritStojkov
PudgeBb3px
PugnaLelis
Clockwerkslimeyao
LionDaze
Disruptoraik
Game 3prediction correct48:38
OG 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 54:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckStojkov
Lifestealerv1olent-
Shadow FiendShad
BrewmasterBb3px
AxeMikSa`
Earthshakererase
ClockwerkLelis
Enchantressaik
Dark WillowDaze
Disruptorslimeyao
Game 4prediction missed40:17
OG 47%HULIGANI 53%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by OG in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightStojkov
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
Monkey KingShad
Queen of Painerase
BeastmasterMikSa`
EarthshakerBb3px
SnapfireDaze
Tuskslimeyao
DisruptorLelis
Lichaik
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 52%
Series resultOG 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4