CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 21 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 18 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 17 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 17 games
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 14 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
468 picks · 455 bans
Dark Willow
373 picks · 208 bans
Tusk
348 picks · 372 bans
Batrider
322 picks · 886 bans
Puck
322 picks · 830 bans
Pangolier
290 picks · 434 bans
Nature's Prophet
289 picks · 557 bans
Tiny
288 picks · 254 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:20
Yellow Submarine 39%HULIGANI 61%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinbottega
Shadow Fienderase
LeshracMirele
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
BeastmasterInfernal
SlardarBb3px
EnchantressXakoda
Tuskslimeyao
Shadow Demonmrls
Lichaik
Game 2prediction correct20:26
Yellow Submarine 36%HULIGANI 64%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMirele
Lunav1olent-
Dragon Knightbottega
Monkey Kingerase
DawnbreakerInfernal
MagnusBb3px
Tuskmrls
Batriderslimeyao
PugnaXakoda
Baneaik
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 70%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2