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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 17 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 16 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 13 games
69%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 11 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ethereal · 11 games
73%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 32 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
42%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 22 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
73%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
68%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
481 picks · 489 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
379 picks · 214 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 388 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 849 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 914 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
302 picks · 457 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 269 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
294 picks · 592 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total59% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:29
Kalmychata 43%4Pirates 57%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWoE
45% · 132 games37% · 11 games
SpectreOtaker
Spectre
Monkey King
Monkey KingEthereal
52% · 148 games55% · 57 games
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Void Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonAnkou
55% · 126 games47% · 231 game
Batriderariel
Batrider
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
54% · 80 games42% · 65 games
Slardarмистер мораль
Slardar
53% · 122 games
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed44:27
Kalmychata 45%4Pirates 55%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWoE
44% · 117 games52% · 96 games
LeshracNattyNarwhal
Leshrac
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
46% · 127 games51% · 12 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAnkou
49% · 146 games56% · 133 games
Earthshakerмистер мораль
Earthshaker
Tiny
Tinyraregods
46% · 331 game50% · 214 games
WarlockPERDAN4IK
Warlock
58% · 266 games
Clockwerkariel
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 59%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2