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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ban9PivoSamogonloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 15 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 15 games
47%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 12 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 12 games
75%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%

Ban9PivoSamogon

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
ififall · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
not me · 5 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ififall · 5 games
80%
Pugna
Pugna
VaniLLl · 5 games
60%
Pudge
Pudge
not me · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
zvёzd · 4 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
VaniLLl · 3 games
100%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
ряф^^ · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
494 picks · 534 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
386 picks · 226 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 409 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 876 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 932 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
311 picks · 480 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
310 picks · 289 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
298 picks · 616 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Ban9PivoSamogon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:3
Kalmychata 51%Ban9PivoSamogon 49%
The model gave 51% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageWoE
49% · 10 games37% · 44 games
Hoodwinkzvёzd
Hoodwink
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
51% · 197 games48% · 76 games
Abaddonififall
Abaddon
Huskar
HuskarEthereal
50% · 45 games50% · 59 games
Queen of Painряф^^
Queen of Pain
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
54% · 75 games53% · 36 games
Snapfirenot me
Snapfire
52% · 112 games
ClockwerkVaniLLl
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed12:36
Kalmychata 54%Ban9PivoSamogon 46%
The model gave 54% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWoE
58% · 160 games44% · 113 games
Shadow Fiendzvёzd
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracEthereal
52% · 70 games54% · 42 games
Keeper of the Lightряф^^
Keeper of the Light
Pangolier
PangolierAnkou
47% · 307 games47% · 168 games
Doomififall
Doom
Dazzle
Dazzleraregods
58% · 49 games41% · 71 game
Disruptornot me
Disruptor
50% · 192 games
ClockwerkVaniLLl
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct32:37
Kalmychata 53%Ban9PivoSamogon 47%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 36:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWoE
45% · 251 game54% · 115 games
Shadow Fiendzvёzd
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
37% · 170 games58% · 170 games
Doomififall
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAnkou
49% · 112 games54% · 57 games
Rubickряф^^
Rubick
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterraregods
48% · 39 games57% · 177 games
Nature's Prophetnot me
Nature's Prophet
56% · 53 games
BaneVaniLLl
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 55%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3