CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 17 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Tiny
bottega · 16 games
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 32 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Tinysignature
Otaker · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
495 picks · 535 bans
Dark Willow
386 picks · 228 bans
Tusk
353 picks · 411 bans
Puck
332 picks · 877 bans
Batrider
327 picks · 927 bans
Tiny
312 picks · 289 bans
Pangolier
311 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
297 picks · 614 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total54% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:9
Yellow Submarine 48%4Pirates 52%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
Monkey KingMirele
Underlordмистер мораль
MagnusInfernal
ClinkzOtaker
Naga SirenXakoda
Pugnaariel
Shadow Demonmrls
TuskPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction missed49:23
Yellow Submarine 48%4Pirates 52%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 57:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordbottega
UnderlordOtaker
Void SpiritMirele
EarthshakerNattyNarwhal
AxeInfernal
Slardarмистер мораль
Naga SirenXakoda
Dark Willowariel
Snapfiremrls
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 54%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2