CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 32 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 20 games
Tinysignature
Otaker · 19 games
Zero Tenacity
Pucksignature
Mirage · 34 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 26 games
Warlock
LeBronDota · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
Earthshaker
Pablo · 23 games
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
501 picks · 540 bans
Dark Willow
389 picks · 229 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 411 bans
Puck
332 picks · 876 bans
Batrider
327 picks · 920 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 478 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 290 bans
Nature's Prophet
293 picks · 623 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% 4Pirates
Head-to-head8 – 4
Model total62% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
4Pirates 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 30:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeOtaker
PuckMirage
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
AxeNefrit
Earthshakerмистер мораль
Faceless VoidNande
Zeusariel
Dark Willowyamich
DazzlePERDAN4IK
DisruptorSe
Game 2prediction correct41:23
4Pirates 57%Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingOtaker
Dragon KnightNande
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
EnigmaNefrit
Earthshakerмистер мораль
MagnusMirage
Batriderariel
Pudgeyamich
DazzlePERDAN4IK
BaneSe
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 62%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2