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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSpoiledloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
73%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
68%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
43%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Otaker · 19 games
68%

eSpoiled

Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 14 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 13 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 12 games
33%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
502 picks · 540 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
390 picks · 229 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 411 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 873 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 919 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 477 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 290 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
294 picks · 624 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 37%
Hero pool strength60% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
4Pirates 71%eSpoiled 29%
The model gave 71% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzOtaker
33% · 5 games57% · 147 games
Templar Assassinssnovv1
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
Earthshakerмистер мораль
59% · 95 games43% · 145 games
Primal BeastmeLes
Primal Beast
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
50% · 60 games41% · 101 game
SnapfireWein
Snapfire
Pugna
Pugnaariel
53% · 206 games49% · 273 games
Clockwerkasdekor_r
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskPERDAN4IK
49% · 300 games
Game 2prediction missed24:35
4Pirates 72%eSpoiled 28%
The model gave 72% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOtaker
57% · 118 games53% · 176 games
Templar Assassinssnovv1
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
Earthshakerмистер мораль
56% · 77 games38% · 100 games
AxemeLes
Axe
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
51% · 56 games46% · 196 games
PugnaWein
Pugna
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
55% · 155 games44% · 90 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Clockwerk
Clockwerkariel
53% · 156 games
Game 3prediction correct35:6
4Pirates 71%eSpoiled 29%
The model gave 71% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeOtaker
60% · 12 games56% · 81 game
Lunassnovv1
Luna
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
53% · 26 games45% · 121 game
Primal BeastmeLes
Primal Beast
Monkey King
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
51% · 135 games46% · 159 games
PugnaWein
Pugna
Batrider
Batriderariel
49% · 238 games51% · 97 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Dazzle
DazzlePERDAN4IK
51% · 47 games
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 82%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3