CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 21 game
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Batridersignature
ariel · 19 games
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 15 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 15 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 13 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 12 games
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
503 picks · 540 bans
Dark Willow
390 picks · 230 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 412 bans
Puck
333 picks · 873 bans
Batrider
327 picks · 917 bans
Pangolier
319 picks · 478 bans
Tiny
313 picks · 290 bans
Nature's Prophet
294 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total70% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:54
4Pirates 60%Kalmychata 40%
The model gave 60% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaOtaker
Shadow FiendEthereal
LeshracNattyNarwhal
Void SpiritWoE
EarthshakerActor
UndyingAnkou
TinyPERDAN4IK
Dazzleraregods
Pugnaariel
Game 2prediction missed14:39
4Pirates 60%Kalmychata 40%
The model gave 60% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperNattyNarwhal
EarthshakerEthereal
AbaddonActor
LycanAnkou
BeastmasterOtaker
LunaWoE
PugnaPERDAN4IK
Bounty Hunterraregods
Clockwerkariel
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 70%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2