CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
Zero Tenacity
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 33 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 25 games
Warlock
LeBronDota · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
Earthshaker
Pablo · 23 games
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
504 picks · 540 bans
Dark Willow
390 picks · 230 bans
Tusk
360 picks · 411 bans
Puck
332 picks · 874 bans
Batrider
327 picks · 917 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 477 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 290 bans
Nature's Prophet
294 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
HULIGANI 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomv1olent-
TerrorbladeNande
Earthshakererase
Keeper of the LightMirage
DawnbreakerBb3px
LycanNefrit
Batrideraik
Dark Willowyamich
Clockwerkslimeyao
WarlockSe
Game 2prediction correct33:7
HULIGANI 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidv1olent-
MedusaNande
DawnbreakerBb3px
UndyingNefrit
Earthshakererase
PuckMirage
Silenceraik
Windrangeryamich
Disruptorslimeyao
ClockwerkSe
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 73%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2