CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 27 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 25 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 23 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 21 game
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 21 game
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 20 games
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 15 games
Axesignature
Infernal · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
506 picks · 543 bans
Dark Willow
388 picks · 231 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 410 bans
Puck
333 picks · 873 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 914 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 478 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 292 bans
Nature's Prophet
293 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:27
Runa Team 44%Yellow Submarine 56%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonnesfeer
Lifestealerbottega
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Monkey KingMirele
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
WarlockHtrd
Shadow DemonXakoda
Dark Willowqueezy
Tuskmrls
Game 2prediction missed36:33
Runa Team 44%Yellow Submarine 56%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Runa Team in 49:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
LycanInfernal
Timbersawnicky`cool
Muertabottega
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Monkey KingMirele
PugnaHtrd
Ogre MagiXakoda
Lionqueezy
Banemrls
Game 3prediction missed39:16
Runa Team 48%Yellow Submarine 52%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Runa Team in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusanesfeer
Shadow FiendMirele
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Marsbottega
UndyingAlberkaaa
Nyx AssassinInfernal
Batriderqueezy
Tinymrls
Naga SirenHtrd
DisruptorXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 59%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3