CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 25 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 25 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 21 game
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 19 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 19 games
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 15 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 15 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 13 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 11 games
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
508 picks · 543 bans
Dark Willow
387 picks · 231 bans
Tusk
359 picks · 410 bans
Puck
333 picks · 872 bans
Batrider
323 picks · 914 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 478 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 294 bans
Nature's Prophet
293 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:26
Runa Team 51%Kalmychata 49%
The model gave 51% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svennesfeer
DoomWoE
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
BatriderEthereal
AbaddonAlberkaaa
Primal BeastAnkou
PugnaHtrd
Grimstrokeraregods
Dark Willowqueezy
Game 2prediction correct33:30
Runa Team 50%Kalmychata 50%
The model gave 50% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonnesfeer
Void SpiritWoE
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
LeshracEthereal
UnderlordAlberkaaa
BeastmasterAnkou
Dark Willowqueezy
Batriderraregods
DisruptorHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 57%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2