?
arrow_backBack to match
CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
45%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 25 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 23 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 19 games
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 19 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
510 picks · 544 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
388 picks · 231 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 412 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 871 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 914 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 478 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 295 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
292 picks · 633 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
HULIGANI 61%Runa Team 39%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 28:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusav1olent-
53% · 196 games46% · 163 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Leshrac
Leshracerase
50% · 80 games48% · 124 games
Lunanesfeer
Luna
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBb3px
48% · 122 games47% · 152 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Pugna
Pugnaslimeyao
55% · 154 games58% · 128 games
Naga SirenHtrd
Naga Siren
Clockwerk
Clockwerkaik
47% · 285 games48% · 270 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct36:10
HULIGANI 60%Runa Team 40%
The model gave 60% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
43% · 252 games43% · 208 games
Abaddonnesfeer
Abaddon
Magnus
MagnusBb3px
52% · 148 games60% · 157 games
EnigmaAlberkaaa
Enigma
Monkey King
Monkey Kingerase
52% · 213 games49% · 212 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Disruptor
Disruptorslimeyao
52% · 82 games52% · 311 games
Nature's Prophetqueezy
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
Tuskaik
46% · 310 games53% · 117 games
BaneHtrd
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 69%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2