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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 19 games
26%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 16 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 14 games
36%
Axe
Axesignature
Infernal · 13 games
69%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 31 game
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 26 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 23 games
61%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 22 games
59%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
511 picks · 544 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
389 picks · 231 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 412 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 873 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 913 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 480 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 295 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
295 picks · 633 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total55% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Yellow Submarine 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbottega
44% · 256 games49% · 126 games
GyrocopterNande
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirele
53% · 182 games53% · 100 games
UndyingNefrit
Undying
Axe
AxeInfernal
50% · 134 games49% · 263 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Snapfire
Snapfiremrls
45% · 128 games49% · 116 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Naga Siren
Naga SirenXakoda
62% · 140 games47% · 235 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct36:15
Yellow Submarine 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerbottega
49% · 93 games48% · 224 games
EarthshakerMirage
Earthshaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
53% · 243 games47% · 96 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Magnus
MagnusInfernal
57% · 217 games53% · 346 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Pugna
PugnaXakoda
52% · 168 games51% · 322 games
Gyrocopteryamich
Gyrocopter
Tiny
Tinymrls
48% · 377 games41% · 110 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 55%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2