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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 24 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 24 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 21 game
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 18 games
67%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 31 game
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 26 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 22 games
59%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Pablo · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
516 picks · 547 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
388 picks · 231 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 411 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 868 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 481 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 910 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 299 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
291 picks · 636 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total55% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:37
Runa Team 49%Zero Tenacity 51%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
51% · 196 games57% · 106 games
AlchemistNande
Alchemist
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
46% · 173 games44% · 210 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
53% · 124 games52% · 240 games
Monkey KingMirage
Monkey King
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
50% · 433 games50% · 301 game
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Silencer
SilencerHtrd
50% · 83 games49% · 152 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed25:23
Runa Team 49%Zero Tenacity 51%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Runa Team in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
50% · 175 games49% · 289 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
46% · 54 games44% · 48 games
OmniknightNande
Omniknight
Bristleback
BristlebackAlberkaaa
50% · 227 games55% · 72 games
Void SpiritMirage
Void Spirit
Lion
Lionqueezy
57% · 134 games60% · 35 games
OracleSe
Oracle
Disruptor
DisruptorHtrd
43% · 79 games49% · 225 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed32:9
Runa Team 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Runa Team in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
56% · 241 game50% · 312 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeAlberkaaa
52% · 137 games52% · 113 games
LifestealerNande
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
50% · 266 games46% · 399 games
PangolierMirage
Pangolier
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
51% · 448 games49% · 176 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Warlock
WarlockHtrd
48% · 229 games44% · 321 game
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 55%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3