CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 31 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
Warlock
LeBronDota · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
yamich · 20 games
eSpoiled
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 13 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 11 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 11 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
516 picks · 547 bans
Dark Willow
386 picks · 231 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 411 bans
Puck
338 picks · 866 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 910 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 299 bans
Nature's Prophet
290 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total80% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
Zero Tenacity 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNande
Medusassnovv1
EarthshakerMirage
MarsmeLes
DawnbreakerNefrit
BatriderWein
Dark Willowyamich
Pugnaasdekor_r
OracleSe
Game 2prediction correct25:12
Zero Tenacity 69%eSpoiled 31%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNande
Nature's Prophetssnovv1
BristlebackNefrit
Night StalkermeLes
Queen of PainMirage
SnapfireWein
OracleSe
Disruptorasdekor_r
Dark Willowyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 80%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2