CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 14 games
Axesignature
Infernal · 13 games
eSpoiled
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 12 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 11 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
520 picks · 549 bans
Dark Willow
386 picks · 229 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 415 bans
Puck
338 picks · 868 bans
Pangolier
328 picks · 483 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 906 bans
Tiny
320 picks · 302 bans
Nature's Prophet
290 picks · 642 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total82% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:18
Yellow Submarine 68%eSpoiled 32%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightbottega
Ursassnovv1
Dark SeerInfernal
MarsmeLes
LeshracMirele
SnapfireWein
Tinymrls
Baneasdekor_r
PugnaXakoda
Game 2prediction correct40:13
Yellow Submarine 69%eSpoiled 31%
The model gave 69% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marcibottega
Monkey Kingssnovv1
LeshracMirele
DawnbreakermeLes
MagnusInfernal
Disruptorasdekor_r
SnapfireXakoda
TuskWein
Muertamrls
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 82%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2