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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 29 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Skiter · 18 games
50%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 34 games
74%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 25 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 25 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 24 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 22 games
77%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
76%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 21 game
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
525 picks · 559 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
389 picks · 230 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 418 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 867 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 482 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 900 bans
60%
Tiny
Tiny
320 picks · 303 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
292 picks · 643 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total59% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
Team Falcons 43%PARIVISION 57%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
50% · 163 games50% · 170 games
Nature's ProphetSatanic
Nature's Prophet
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerATF
47% · 164 games50% · 227 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
52% · 138 games47% · 47 games
BrewmasterDM
Brewmaster
Chen
ChenSneyking
58% · 64 games40% · 71 game
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
56% · 76 games52% · 90 games
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed24:24
Team Falcons 44%PARIVISION 56%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:03:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalr1ne
53% · 243 games49% · 200 games
Shadow FiendSatanic
Shadow Fiend
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
50% · 60 games49% · 311 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
61% · 190 games43% · 57 games
BrewmasterDM
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
50% · 134 games44% · 108 games
SnapfireDukalis
Snapfire
Lion
LionCr1t-
51% · 133 games47% · 84 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed37:28
Team Falcons 43%PARIVISION 57%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 55:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
53% · 198 games40% · 119 games
SvenSatanic
Sven
Tiny
TinySkiter
51% · 403 games51% · 328 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
52% · 134 games55% · 150 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Chen
ChenSneyking
60% · 86 games37% · 51 game
ZeusDukalis
Zeus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
45% · 74 games48% · 247 games
Dawnbreaker9Class
Dawnbreaker
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 59%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3