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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 29 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 29 games
45%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Skiter · 18 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 35 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 33 games
76%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 33 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 561 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
388 picks · 229 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 421 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 864 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 478 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 892 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 305 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
293 picks · 379 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Team Falcons 53%Aurora Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 28:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
51% · 172 games43% · 95 games
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
Shadow Fiend
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
44% · 47 games52% · 137 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingATF
57% · 269 games59% · 162 games
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Chen
ChenSneyking
50% · 130 games40% · 109 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Pudge
PudgeCr1t-
51% · 22 games50% · 137 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed9:36
Team Falcons 53%Aurora Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
40% · 77 games52% · 160 games
Nature's ProphetNightfall
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
49% · 139 games49% · 50 games
Void Spiritkiyotaka
Void Spirit
Pudge
PudgeMalr1ne
48% · 20 games59% · 135 games
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
43% · 122 games51% · 105 games
LionMira
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
48% · 151 game59% · 59 games
BanePanto
Bane
Game 3prediction correct34:8
Team Falcons 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
46% · 69 games53% · 14 games
Troll WarlordNightfall
Troll Warlord
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
62% · 246 games48% · 166 games
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Mars
MarsATF
55% · 149 games41% · 106 games
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Dawnbreaker
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
48% · 93 games50% · 239 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
55% · 17 games43% · 49 games
DazzlePanto
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 56%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3