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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 10 games
40%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 10 games
60%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 20 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 19 games
68%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 18 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 13 games
69%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 13 games
46%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 561 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
387 picks · 229 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 421 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 860 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 476 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 891 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
320 picks · 305 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
293 picks · 377 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:24
HULIGANI 54%TNL DOTA 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 45:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
43% · 3 games44% · 77 games
Medusayowaai
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painerase
42% · 225 games53% · 182 games
Beastmasterdualrazee
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
56% · 245 games50% · 236 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Zeus
ZeusHellscream
43% · 56 games49% · 65 games
Naga Sirenflacko
Naga Siren
Chen
ChenBb3px
62% · 178 games48% · 147 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed13:35
HULIGANI 58%TNL DOTA 42%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
57% · 182 games45% · 196 games
Doomyowaai
Doom
Earthshaker
Earthshakererase
59% · 166 games44% · 153 games
Timbersawdualrazee
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCorrupted
57% · 349 games42% · 335 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBb3px
56% · 210 games49% · 177 games
Pugnaflacko
Pugna
Bane
BaneHellscream
48% · 83 games43% · 129 games
SilencerFernans
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 61%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2