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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 35 games
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 33 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 20 games
75%
Axe
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 18 games
67%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 15 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
31%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
31%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 12 games
25%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Daze · 12 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
526 picks · 566 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
386 picks · 227 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 421 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 863 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 481 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 311 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 888 bans
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
297 picks · 668 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 41%
Hero pool strength63% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
4Pirates 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG.
Game 2prediction correct
4Pirates 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2