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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 16 games
56%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 35 games
74%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 26 games
65%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 24 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 24 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 22 games
77%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 21 game
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
526 picks · 566 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 227 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 421 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 861 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 481 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 311 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 888 bans
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
296 picks · 668 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 66%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:18
Team Tidebound 44%PARIVISION 56%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 48:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
50% · 268 games43% · 437 games
PangolierSatanic
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
49% · 312 games55% · 171 game
EarthshakerNo[o]ne
Earthshaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
48% · 329 games49% · 293 games
PhoenixDM
Phoenix
Grimstroke
GrimstrokepLAnet
54% · 50 games55% · 253 games
Magnus9Class
Magnus
Pugna
Pugnay`
50% · 207 games50% · 12 games
Vengeful SpiritDukalis
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct19:28
Team Tidebound 45%PARIVISION 55%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 57:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
48% · 210 games50% · 209 games
AbaddonSatanic
Abaddon
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
50% · 169 games43% · 251 game
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNothingToSay
57% · 119 games54% · 106 games
LycanDM
Lycan
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
47% · 179 games48% · 149 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Silencer
Silencery`
59% · 71 game44% · 33 games
Pudge9Class
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2