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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 10 games
40%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 10 games
60%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 35 games
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 33 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 28 games
61%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 19 games
79%
Axe
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
542 picks · 569 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 227 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 422 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 487 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 864 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 324 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 883 bans
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
307 picks · 674 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 61%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction correct34:29
HULIGANI 53%4Pirates 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCorrupted
50% · 148 games53% · 199 games
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Nature's Prophet
Doom
Doomv1olent-
47% · 260 games50% · 154 games
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Primal Beast
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
47% · 315 games53% · 318 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaHellscream
52% · 217 games46% · 483 games
TinyPERDAN4IK
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockBb3px
52% · 214 games
Game 3prediction correct38:10
HULIGANI 55%4Pirates 45%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 28:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
little data54% · 222 games
Beastmasterмистер мораль
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey Kingerase
59% · 183 games44% · 110 games
MarciOtaker
Marci
Zeus
ZeusHellscream
30% · 19 games52% · 45 games
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Dazzle
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCorrupted
50% · 92 games49% · 48 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Warlock
WarlockBb3px
47% · 131 game
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 61%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2