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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 15 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 12 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 12 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
25%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Daze · 12 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 29 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 16 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 13 games
54%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
546 picks · 572 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
384 picks · 227 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 423 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 489 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 325 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 866 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 879 bans
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
312 picks · 675 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:43
OG 55%Passion UA 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by Passion UA in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterShad
51% · 162 games56% · 91 game
LycanBatyuk
Lycan
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStormstormer
54% · 361 game47% · 286 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Undying
UndyingMikSa`
49% · 122 games49% · 140 games
MarciCrystallize
Marci
Pugna
Pugnan0tail
52% · 167 games43% · 73 games
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
Lion
LionDaze
48% · 166 games49% · 388 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct52:41
OG 52%Passion UA 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 56:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperShad
40% · 88 games52% · 232 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
46% · 128 games52% · 85 games
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
51% · 118 games58% · 39 games
HuskarBatyuk
Huskar
Batrider
BatriderDaze
46% · 293 games51% · 32 games
Grimstrokekreker
Grimstroke
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenn0tail
58% · 105 games49% · 344 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct35:36
OG 56%Passion UA 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:01:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
55% · 149 games45% · 260 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStormstormer
54% · 302 games49% · 275 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
60% · 315 games41% · 180 games
Queen of PainMoonlight
Queen of Pain
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDaze
44% · 254 games51% · 134 games
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Pugna
Pugnan0tail
55% · 156 games46% · 327 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3