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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 14 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 10 games
70%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 9 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 9 games
67%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 30 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 26 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 23 games
61%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
yamich · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
547 picks · 574 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
384 picks · 225 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 422 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 491 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 328 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 862 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
314 picks · 677 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 874 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total63% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:3
MOUZ 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 13:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Undying
UndyingBOOM
49% · 75 games62% · 19 games
MeepoNande
Meepo
Medusa
MedusaTimado
52% · 92 games46% · 178 games
AbaddonNefrit
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
53% · 171 game46% · 100 games
LeshracMirage
Leshrac
Chen
ChenSeleri
64% · 40 games41% · 99 games
SnapfireSe
Snapfire
Batrider
BatriderJANTER
50% · 190 games51% · 172 games
MarciLeBronDota
Marci
Game 2prediction missed19:41
MOUZ 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverTimado
41% · 56 games56% · 339 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
43% · 174 games49% · 16 games
Anti-MageNande
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
49% · 259 games53% · 166 games
InvokerMirage
Invoker
Undying
UndyingSeleri
42% · 81 game48% · 253 games
Gyrocopteryamich
Gyrocopter
Tusk
TuskJANTER
46% · 338 games66% · 134 games
ChenSe
Chen
Game 3prediction correct35:19
MOUZ 55%Zero Tenacity 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTimado
41% · 139 games50% · 84 games
LeshracMirage
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
51% · 361 game51% · 208 games
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
45% · 143 games57% · 107 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
50% · 80 games63% · 80 games
ChenSe
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSeleri
54% · 16 games48% · 260 games
Tinyyamich
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 63%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3