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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 30 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 30 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 29 games
48%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Skiter · 18 games
50%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 33 games
39%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 19 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 18 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
dEsire · 16 games
44%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
547 picks · 574 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
384 picks · 225 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 422 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 490 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 328 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 862 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
314 picks · 677 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
312 picks · 874 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total88% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:16
Team Falcons 72%AVULUS 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
55% · 166 games42% · 90 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
50% · 49 games65% · 49 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
54% · 66 games43% · 60 games
UndyingXibbe
Undying
Warlock
WarlockSneyking
46% · 128 games45% · 103 games
PugnaFly
Pugna
Pudge
PudgeCr1t-
52% · 9 games50% · 116 games
MarcidEsire
Marci
Game 2prediction correct14:25
Team Falcons 73%AVULUS 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
47% · 93 games48% · 149 games
MarciSmiling Knight
Marci
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
52% · 346 games54% · 246 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
51% · 189 games45% · 388 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
57% · 184 games46% · 307 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
45% · 322 games60% · 44 games
DazzleFly
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 88%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2