?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 28 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 14 games
79%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 12 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 29 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 22 games
64%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
yamich · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
555 picks · 580 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
383 picks · 225 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 422 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 334 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 495 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
329 picks · 862 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
320 picks · 683 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
309 picks · 871 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total60% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction correct4:38
Passion UA 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 25:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
52% · 237 games43% · 155 games
MarciNande
Marci
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
52% · 169 games49% · 256 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoonlight
54% · 201 game48% · 83 games
LycanNefrit
Lycan
Pugna
Pugnakreker
49% · 141 game44% · 278 games
Gyrocopteryamich
Gyrocopter
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
58% · 93 games53% · 69 games
BaneSe
Bane
Game 3prediction missed24:19
Passion UA 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Passion UA in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
47% · 182 games51% · 194 games
Templar AssassinNande
Templar Assassin
Marci
MarciCrystallize
50% · 142 games47% · 248 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
51% · 274 games54% · 293 games
Dragon KnightMirage
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
45% · 238 games44% · 19 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Silencer
Silencerkreker
54% · 116 games52% · 198 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Game 4prediction missed36:15
Passion UA 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Passion UA in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallize
51% · 256 games53% · 273 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
49% · 92 games51% · 198 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
53% · 91 game46% · 204 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyQBFY
47% · 437 games52% · 247 games
Doomyamich
Doom
Undying
Undyingkreker
49% · 120 games49% · 74 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 60%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3