CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 15 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 12 games
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
Tuskoften banned
Daze · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 11 games
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 17 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 15 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 13 games
Tiny
bottega · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
554 picks · 580 bans
Dark Willow
383 picks · 225 bans
Tusk
372 picks · 422 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 334 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 495 bans
Puck
328 picks · 861 bans
Terrorblade
320 picks · 682 bans
Batrider
309 picks · 869 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:24
OG 50%Yellow Submarine 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonShad
Lifestealerbottega
Queen of PainStormstormer
BeastmasterInfernal
Primal BeastMikSa`
Ember SpiritDifference
TinyDaze
Muertamrls
Phoenixn0tail
PugnaXakoda
Game 2prediction missed16:50
OG 53%Yellow Submarine 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenShad
Shadow Fiendbottega
PuckStormstormer
Void SpiritDifference
UndyingMikSa`
SlardarInfernal
Jakiron0tail
Ogre MagiXakoda
Skywrath MageDaze
Shadow Shamanmrls
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2