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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 28 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 14 games
79%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 12 games
50%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 17 games
65%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 13 games
69%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 13 games
46%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
556 picks · 582 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
382 picks · 224 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 335 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 495 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 861 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 683 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
307 picks · 864 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total60% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:30
Passion UA 47%TNL DOTA 53%
The model gave 53% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
54% · 160 games52% · 112 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallize
49% · 214 games50% · 220 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
46% · 263 games47% · 251 game
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Disruptor
Disruptorkreker
43% · 95 games47% · 126 games
PugnaFernans
Pugna
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
62% · 160 games52% · 183 games
Clockwerkflacko
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed33:14
Passion UA 46%TNL DOTA 54%
The model gave 54% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
49% · 161 game42% · 65 games
Svenyowaai
Sven
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallize
57% · 135 games42% · 144 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
56% · 219 games46% · 256 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
51% · 71 game51% · 99 games
Warlockflacko
Warlock
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQBFY
56% · 128 games48% · 150 games
PugnaFernans
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct14:28
Passion UA 45%TNL DOTA 55%
The model gave 55% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallize
53% · 320 games43% · 210 games
Medusayowaai
Medusa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBatyuk
61% · 224 games48% · 323 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
55% · 237 games47% · 449 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderQBFY
50% · 377 games47% · 250 games
Abaddonflacko
Abaddon
Warlock
Warlockkreker
51% · 258 games44% · 184 games
MarciFernans
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 60%
Series resultTNL DOTA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3