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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 33 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 27 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
73%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 20 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
rue · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 17 games
76%

Gaimin Gladiators

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 30 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 27 games
48%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 25 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Quinn · 24 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Quinn · 22 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Quinn · 21 game
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
558 picks · 583 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
380 picks · 222 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 425 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 335 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 497 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 858 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
323 picks · 684 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
304 picks · 857 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:33
Team Spirit 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 52:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
48% · 232 games49% · 218 games
DoomWatson
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingMirele
53% · 245 games54% · 150 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCollapse
49% · 17 games55% · 161 game
PhoenixQuinn
Phoenix
Disruptor
Disruptorrue
51% · 91 game46% · 79 games
EarthshakertOfu
Earthshaker
Abaddon
AbaddonMiposhka
46% · 173 games48% · 150 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct32:32
Team Spirit 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaYatoro
52% · 174 games63% · 16 games
MeepoWatson
Meepo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
46% · 212 games53% · 77 games
UndyingAce
Undying
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
49% · 118 games53% · 218 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Silencer
Silencerrue
55% · 90 games50% · 179 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
50% · 58 games40% · 162 games
MarcitOfu
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2