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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 34 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 32 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%

Team Tidebound

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 31 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windranger
pLAnet · 17 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
562 picks · 586 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
379 picks · 222 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
368 picks · 426 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
347 picks · 339 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 499 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
325 picks · 862 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
325 picks · 690 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
304 picks · 856 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:20
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Tidebound 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 54:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
50% · 99 games53% · 177 games
Templar Assassinshiro
Templar Assassin
Undying
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 67 games42% · 51 game
TinkerNothingToSay
Tinker
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
50% · 182 games57% · 147 games
EnigmaFaith_bian
Enigma
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
49% · 106 games43% · 93 games
RubickpLAnet
Rubick
Pugna
PugnaPanto
49% · 104 games56% · 90 games
Baney`
Bane
Game 2prediction missed32:11
Aurora Gaming 50%Team Tidebound 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciNightfall
50% · 152 games49% · 38 games
TinkerNothingToSay
Tinker
Leshrac
Leshrackiyotaka
45% · 72 games48% · 178 games
Morphlingshiro
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 268 games47% · 237 games
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
51% · 266 games53% · 258 games
ClockwerkpLAnet
Clockwerk
Oracle
OraclePanto
56% · 27 games48% · 74 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 51%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2