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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
53%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 14 games
64%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 12 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Norma · 11 games
55%

Kalmychata

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xn丶e · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
561 picks · 585 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
379 picks · 221 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
368 picks · 426 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
347 picks · 339 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 497 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
325 picks · 860 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
324 picks · 688 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
302 picks · 855 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:35
TNL DOTA 60%Kalmychata 40%
The model gave 60% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 50:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
52% · 224 games44% · 227 games
TerrorbladeWoE
Terrorblade
Doom
Doomyowaai
51% · 207 games51% · 328 games
BatriderEthereal
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaFernans
57% · 170 games50% · 171 game
Primal BeastAnkou
Primal Beast
Marci
MarciNorma
46% · 128 games47% · 64 games
Dazzleraregods
Dazzle
Bane
Baneflacko
55% · 61 game
Game 2prediction correct39:13
TNL DOTA 61%Kalmychata 39%
The model gave 61% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenyowaai
62% · 60 games57% · 3 games
NecrophosWoE
Necrophos
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
55% · 48 games46% · 117 games
LeshracEthereal
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
55% · 144 games43% · 173 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
Warlockflacko
45% · 115 games45% · 142 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Marci
MarciFernans
59% · 68 games
Game 3prediction missed28:36
TNL DOTA 62%Kalmychata 38%
The model gave 62% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinyowaai
49% · 122 games44% · 374 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Batrider
Batriderdualrazee
54% · 240 games44% · 122 games
LeshracEthereal
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNorma
53% · 242 games50% · 152 games
Primal BeastAnkou
Primal Beast
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanflacko
51% · 173 games50% · 184 games
Marciraregods
Marci
Bane
BaneFernans
60% · 55 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 71%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3