FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 36 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 24 games
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 24 games
Dark Seersignature
DM · 22 games
Slarksignature
9Class · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 38 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 30 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 27 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
568 picks · 590 bans
Dark Willow
379 picks · 221 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 426 bans
Tiny
352 picks · 348 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 504 bans
Terrorblade
328 picks · 691 bans
Puck
327 picks · 862 bans
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 51%
Hero pool strength58% PARIVISION
Head-to-head11 – 5
Model total64% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:26
PARIVISION 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 53:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainSatanic
Void SpiritNisha
PudgeNo[o]ne
AbaddonmiCKe
PhoenixDM
AxeSabeRLight-
Naga SirenDukalis
PugnaBoxi
Clockwerk9Class
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Game 2prediction missed26:44
PARIVISION 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoSatanic
Monkey KingmiCKe
PangolierNo[o]ne
Storm SpiritNisha
UndyingDM
MarciSabeRLight-
AbaddonDukalis
BatriderBoxi
Clockwerk9Class
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2